What Trends are we Seeing?
Resilience continues to be the theme for the Toronto and Greater Toronto Area (GTA) average selling price. The April 2024 average sale price on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) was $1,156,165 which is a 0.3 per cent increase from the same month of the prior year and a 3.08 per cent increase in average price from March 2024. When asking the fundamental questions of i) will my property be worth more tomorrow than today or ii) will it cost me more to purchase a property tomorrow than today the answer continues to be “yes”. With respect to number of transactions on TRREB there was a decrease in April 2024 of approximately 4.5 per cent from April 2023. Note however, the Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) was 4.2 per cent, indicating a balanced market between buyer and sell; SNLR between 40 to 60 per cent is a balanced market.
What Lies Ahead?
The big question surrounding the real estate market continues to be “when will interest rates go down”. The Bank of Canada faces a myriad of different data points which are pushing and pulling in different direction in terms of taking a definitive stance on timing of interest rate adjustments.
Looking at the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dynamic, it is estimated we will see a 0.5% increase in May 2024 reports. Notable is that the per capita GDP is decreasing in Canada despite overall GDP barely balancing out of recession territory. Keep in mind that at the end of 2023 there were 13 economies across the developed world where the per capita GDP was decreasing. Furthermore, when you remove “shelter” from GDP figures, the GDP adjusted rate is 1.5 per cent.
The most recent statistics which arrived for the Bank of Canada to contemplate were the unemployment figures release on May 10th, 2024. An unemployment rate of 6.1 per cent repeated itself from March of 2024. However, the road to 6.1 per cent unemployment was a different pathway in each of the months noted. In March 2024, the country added 2,200 jobs while April 2024 saw 90,000 jobs added. The underlying figure to note is that in April 2024 the country added 112,000 people aged 15 and older to the population count. While the job add number was larger than expected for April 2024, the underlying fundamentals of how many people will have money in their pockets to spend and drive inflation is questionable.
It is our expectation that we will see an expected rate adjustment at either the June or July announcements from the Bank of Canada. Clouding the water slightly is the differential this may create in the U.S. dollar to the Canadian dollar. Overall, we are of the opinion that with the U.S. economy and Canadian economy moving in different direction the Bank of Canada will likely make its rate changes with lighter weight on currency considerations.
What this means for sellers will depend on their position. Many sellers have decided to act and bring their investment properties to the market given the expected change to the Capital Gains tax to be finalized June 24th, 2024. The comfort of price stability has been evident over the last year, and they are choosing to capitalize on the equity they have built.
From a buyer perspective, the window to purchase prior to interest rates decreasing and consumer confidence likely escalating at an exponential value is drawing to a close. Many purchasers are realizing that this may be the time to secure a purchase price outside of a highly competitive market and then later benefit from interest rate reductions.
What is Happening with Sale Prices
| Sale Price Comparison | ||||
| Product Type | Changes from April 2023 to April 2024 | Changes from March 2024 to April 2024 | ||
| Toronto | GTA | Toronto | GTA | |
| Detached | +2.2% | +1.2% | +6.7% | +1.8% |
| Semi-Detached | +2.9% | -2.6% | +5.0% | -1.3% |
| Townhouse | -3.9% | -3.5% | +1.1% | +0.9% |
| Condominium | +2.0% | -1.7% | +5.1% | +1.4% |
Number of Transactions Trend
When comparing April 2024 to April 2023, we saw the following trend:
| Categories | April 2024 | April 2023 | Percentage Change |
| Number of Transactions | 7,114 | 7,487 | -5.0% |
| Number of New Listings | 16,941 | 11,509 | +47.2% |
| Number of Active Listings | 18,088 | 10,373 | +74,4% |
When comparing March 2024 to February 2024, we saw the following trend:
| Categories | April 2024 | March 2024 | Percentage Change |
| Number of Transactions | 7,114 | 6,560 | +8.4 |
| Number of New Listings | 16,941 | 13,120 | +29.1% |
| Number of Active Listings | 18,088 | 12,459 | +45.2% |
Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing March 2024 year-over-year to March 2023 and month-over-month to February 2024. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:
| Number of Transactions Comparison | ||||
| Product Type | Changes from March 2023 to March 2024 | Changes from February 2024 to March 2024 | ||
| Toronto | GTA | Toronto | GTA | |
| Detached | -1.2% | -9.0% | +15.9 | +8.0% |
| Semi-Detached | +3.4% | -3.6% | +8.1% | +6.4% |
| Townhouse | -1.5% | +1.4% | +10.6% | +2.8% |
| Condominium | -9.5% | +0.4% | +10.4% | +7.3% |
Footnote: Source of statistical data is from the March 2024 and February 2024 Market Watch report of the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS.
A – Monthly Percentage Change in the Number of Units Sold
B – Month Over Month Average Price Percentage Change
C – Seasonally Adjusted Month Over Month Average Price Percentage Change
D – Monthly Percentage Change in Average Sale Price
