What Trends are we Seeing?
Multiple offers: that was unexpected wasn’t it!? Depending on the price point and product type we are seeing multiple offers. The latter half of March proved to be a good time to sell for owners of semi-detached and townhouses priced between $1.0 million and $1.5 million. Detached homeowners with assets valued below $2.5 million also found multiple buyers coveting their properties. Key for the homeowners that attracted attention from multiple buyers was having a relatively turn-key residence and having price expectations within the most recent market value sales. This was the pitter patter on the streets that doesn’t necessarily show up in statistics on an immediate basis.
From a statistical perspective average sale price decreased 2.5 per cent in March on a year-over-year basis. The market continues to hold average price without monumental fluctuations although an ongoing downward trend in small increments. The 416-area code saw the average price of detached homes and semi-detached homes increase by 1.1 per cent and 2.6 per cent year-over-year respectively. Overall, from a statistical perspective the market moved into a deeper buyer’s market with a Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) of 29 per cent. This was in part due to an increase in new listings of 28.6 per cent in March year-over-year creating a total inventory which was 88.8 per cent higher than the prior year in March.
What Lies Ahead?
The pendulum swings constantly for the Bank of Canada (BoC) in their rate setting decisions as different political and economic data is released. From a political perspective it is likely that little more will be done prior to the next BoC interest rate announcement (April 16th) given that the trade war lacks clarity, and the Federal Election occurs April 28th. Let’s break down the economic data piece by piece.
The inflation numbers released for February 2025 (2.6 per cent) were the first to be above two per cent since October 2024. This opened a floodgate of economists to postulate that the BoC would be holding its interest rates steady at the next rate announcement. This was further supported by an in-depth review of the BoC decision making process for their March rate announcement that underscored the trade ware and pending tariffs as the primary reason for the BoC March interest rate reduction; otherwise, rates would have been held constant.
The gross domestic product (GDP) showed an economy that was picking up steam at the end of 2024 and then hit a wall. January GDP rose 0.4 per cent with predictions that February’s GDP will be flatlined and that by Q2 2025 the economy will be experiencing contraction with negative GDP.
At the end of last week, the unemployment figures were released (April 4th, 2025). The labour market saw its largest decrease in employment since January 2022. Economist expectations were to be a gain of jobs in the range of 10,000, however, a loss of 33,000 jobs was what materialized. Causing concern with respect to the strength of the economy was that private sector employment fell by 48,000 with an emphasis on full time employment job losses (0.4 per cent decline in full time workers). The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7 per cent with some expecting it to push through seven per cent in the near future. Upon the release of the unemployment figures many economists moved their position from expecting a BoC rate hold at its next announcement to a rate reduction.
For buyers, the continued appeal of interest rates below four per cent is drawing them off the sidelines. Some anxiety is building with first time buyers who as they dip their toes in the water find multiple offers. The undercurrents of a buyers market still show despite multiple offers with conditions being accepted and prices not exceeding expectations but falling within market value ranges and in some instances below prior sales despite the competitive environment at hand.
For sellers, this really is a Goldilocks moment. Pending on your product type, immediate area supply and demand picture along with your lifestyle and real estate goals the decision to join other sellers on the market must be well thought out. We encourage you to check-in with us to learn more about what your specific real estate picture looks like.
What is Happening with Sale Prices
| Sale Price Comparison | ||||
| Product Type | Changes from March 2024 to March 2025 | Changes from February 2025 to March 2025 | ||
| Toronto | GTA | Toronto | GTA | |
| Detached | +1.1% | -4.3% | -3.3% | -0.2% |
| Semi-Detached | +2.6% | -6.6% | +4.9% | -0.4% |
| Townhouse | -2.4% | -3.9% | -5.1% | +1.0% |
| Condominium | -1.8% | -5.0% | -1.1% | +0.6% |
Number of Transactions Trend
When comparing March 2025 to March 2024, we saw the following trend:
| Categories | March 2025 | March 2024 | Percentage Change |
| Number of Transactions | 5,011 | 6,519 | -23.1% |
| Number of New Listings | 17,263 | 13,425 | +28.6% |
| Number of Active Listings | 23,462 | 12,429 | +88.8% |
When comparing March 2025 to February 2025, we saw the following trend:
| Categories | March 2025 | February 2025 | Percentage Change |
| Number of Transactions | 5,011 | 4,037 | +24.1% |
| Number of New Listings | 17,263 | 12,066 | +43.1% |
| Number of Active Listings | 23,462 | 19,536 | +20.1% |
Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing March 2025 year-over-year to March 2024 and month-over-month to February 2025. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:
| Number of Transactions Comparison | ||||
| Product Type | Changes from March 2024 to March 2025 | Changes from February 2025 to March 2025 | ||
| Toronto | GTA | Toronto | GTA | |
| Detached | -10.8% | -28.9% | +39.2% | +22.5% |
| Semi-Detached | -5.5% | -22.4% | +43.4% | +31.3% |
| Townhouse | -21.6% | -23.6% | +29.4% | +28.2% |
| Condominium | -21.6% | -27.0% | +11.7% | +20.8% |
Footnote: Source of statistical data is from the February 2025 and March 20205 Market Watch report of the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS.
A – Monthly Percentage Change in the Number of Units Sold
B – Month Over Month Average Price Percentage Change
C – Seasonally Adjusted Month Over Month Average Price Percentage Change
D – Monthly Percentage Change in Average Sale Price
