May 2023 Market Update

What Trends Are We Seeing?

The activity that many realtors, sellers, and buyers have felt on the ground for the last five months has shown up in the statistics more predominantly.  There have now been three straight months of increase to the benchmark price index on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and the most recent months marks the biggest increase since February 2022 (3.2 per cent).  When buyers jumped back into the real estate market shortly after the New Year they found limited supply which has put an upward pressure on prices.  Home prices have been climbing in the Toronto region with the peripheral markets to the north and west of the city also increasing.  The illustration below shows the month over month price index change since January 2021.


The increased buyer activity affected by the interest rate stability is illustrated below. Notice the rapid increase from January, 2023 to May, 2023.



The demand versus supply relationship has resulted in only 1.3 months of inventory to be in place.  To put this in perspective, a balance market exists when there is 6 months of inventory in place.  Seller opportunities are becoming known, and sellers are responding, new listings rose 10.1 percent in May from April; however, demand outweighed supply by a significant amount.  New listing volume is still 50 percent below the 10-year average for the month of May.  Transactional activity is increasing with a 25 percent increase in number of transactions on TRREB in May 2023 to that of May 2022 and an increase of 20 percent in number of transactions on TRREB from April 2023 to May 2023.


What Lies Ahead?

The buyer side response to certainty of interest rates was stronger than expected.  The Bank of Canada’s decision to pause interest rate increases was partially a function of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures presented at the end of 2022.  Most recently we realized stronger than expected GDP, 3.1 percent Q1 2023, which further fuels inflation away from the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent target.  We are of the sentiment that even with the recent Bank of Canada announcement of a 25-basis point rate increase that i) there may be at least one more 25 basis point increase in 2023 ii) there will be a quick shift downward once inflation stabilizes and iii) it won’t impact home buyer sentiment on a scale large enough to shift demand and supply into equilibrium eliminating the seller’s market currently in place.  While more sellers may be comfortable to enter back into the market, buyer thirst to build equity, strong rent growth and record population growth will continue to support increasing sale prices.


What is Happening with Sale Prices?

Average sale price for all property types for the month of May decreased by 1.2% year-over-year to $1,196,101 in May 2023 from $1,210,372 in May 2022.  Month-over-month we saw a 3.7% increase from April 2023 to May 2023. On TRREB, for Toronto and the GTA, when broken down by product type and comparing May 2022 to May 2023 and April 2023 to May 2023, the average sale prices changes are as follows:


Sale Price Comparison
Product Type Changes from May 2022 to May 2023 Changes from April 2023 to May 2023


GTA Toronto


Detached      0.0%      1.0%       7.01%      2.88%
Semi-Detached      -2.0%      3.9%      5.46%      5.79%
Townhouse      1.8%      2.9%      1.39%      2.01%
Condominium      -1.1%      -6.3%      4.39%      1.63%


Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing May 2023 to May 2022, we saw the following trend:



May 2023

May 2022

Percentage Change

Number of Transactions




Number of New Listings




Number of Active Listings





When comparing May 2023 to April 2023, we saw the following trend:



May 2023

April 2023

Percentage Change

Number of Transactions




Number of New Listings




Number of Active Listings





Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing May 2023 to May 2022 and April 2023. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:


Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type

Changes from May 2022 to May 2023

Changes from April 2023 to May 2023


GTA Toronto









15.7% 23.28%




24.3% 14.55%




49.9% 16.59%


Footnote: Source of statistical data is from the May 2023 and April 2023 Market Watch report of the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS.



A – Monthly Percentage Change in the Number of Units Sold



B – Month Over Month Average Price Percentage Change



C – Seasonally Adjusted Month Over Month Average Price Percentage Change



D – Monthly Percentage Change in Average Sale Price


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