September 2020 Market Review

September 2020 Review 

The real estate market in Toronto and the GTA continued to move forward at a strong pace.  September is usually the commencement of the Fall real estate market which lasts until roughly mid-November.  When reviewing the past few months, we have noted that there may have been pent up demand from the Spring 2020 market which was not realized due to  lack of social mobility and the number of transactions in those months (June, July and August) being compared to prior years which are traditionally lower sales volume months.  It is notable that in September 2020 the number of sold properties on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB’s) MLS was 42.3 per cent higher than that of September 2019.  With the record setting third quarter from a sales volume perspective and ongoing steam from September 2020, the number of sales year-to-date on TRREB’s MLS increased by one per cent relative to that of last year.

 

Increasing Sale Prices 

From a price perspective there was an increase of 14 per cent year-over-year in the average price of all homes sold on TRREB’s MLS system. This price increase was again led by low-rise properties with the condo market showing signs of slowing.

 

What trends are we seeing?

When asking the practical question of where the buyers are coming from, we must remember that in June, July and August we were seeing market conditions such that there were multiple offers drawing bidders in the two to 15 range in terms of number of submissions.  With low interest rates, improving economic outlook depending on the sector of employment and sales increasing at a faster rate than new listings it continues to be a seller’s market for the bread and butter price points and geographic locations around Toronto and the GTA.

 

What lies ahead for the rest of Fall 2020?

Ground orientated product such as detached, semi-detached and townhomes lead the way from product perspective with growth rates in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto being more aggressive.  With social mobility restrictions being more specific to the various sectors of the economy and society relative to the broader social mobility restrictions used in the Spring lockdown we may see a continued strong pace to the real estate market through October and into November. The question of how long this  pace lasts and when/if there would be a softening on price likely relies on the greater economy’s ability to avoid a wider spanning recession and the current “K” shaped recover appears to be fueling buyers appetites to complete transactions in an environment with limited supply relative to their demand.

September 2020 – Market Analysis

Monthly Percentage Change in Number of Units Sold – September 2020 – Illustration A

Month-Over-Month Average Price Percentage Change – September 2020 – Illustration B

Seasonally Adjusted Month-Over-Month Average Price Percentage Change – September 2020 – Illustration C

Monthly Percentage Change in Average Sale Price – September 2020 – Illustration D