September 2021 Market Report

September 2021 Review

Number of Transactions

The number of transactions in September 2021 increased relative to August 2021.  Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports September 2021 as the third-highest number of transactions record for September with 9,046 total transactions.  This is however lower by 18% when compared to September 2020’s record of 11,033 transactions. The supply of properties is not keeping up with the demand as TRREB reports one of the lowest levels of new listings in the past decade with a 34% decrease when comparing September 2021 to September 2020.

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) we notice the following changes in transactions when comparing September 2021 to September 2020. In the Toronto area: 22.6% decrease in transactions for detached properties; 22.8% decrease in transactions for semi-detached properties; 8.8% decrease in transactions for townhouses; and 16.0% increase in transactions for condominiums. In the GTA: 31.1% decrease in transactions for detached properties; 30.2% decrease in transactions for semi-detached properties; 20.0% decrease in transactions for townhouses; and 7.3% increase in transactions for condominiums.

Increasing Sale Prices

The average sale price for all property types was up by 18.3% year-over-year to $1,136,280 from September 2020 to September 2021. On TRREB, when comparing September 2021 to September 2020, the average sale prices for Toronto area increased as follows: 19.5% increase for detached properties; 13.9% increase for semi-detached properties; 7.2% increase for townhouses; and 8.5% for condominiums. In the GTA, the average sale prices increased as follows: 31.4% increase for detached properties; 25.2% increase for semi-detached properties; 26% increase for townhouses; and 18% increase for condominiums.

What trends are we seeing?

Supply continues to be the narrative to the Toronto and GTA real estate markets. We are seeing average price increases of over 20% in the low-rise segments, including detached, semi-detached, and townhouse properties. The condominium segment has also picked up remarkably as we see more buyers re-entering the fall market.

What lies ahead for 2021?

The federal election made housing a hot topic, however, the recommended policies will likely have a short-term impact on market conditions at best if supply remains out of balance relative to demand.  The housing concern is not an issue that federal government can tackle alone and will require collaboration from both provincial and municipal levels.   Until we see a sustained collaboration to address the supply side of the equation, we will likely continue to see escalating prices.  Inflation concerns may have an immediate impact on the real estate market should interest rates be adjusted; however, any adjustment would likely be absorbed by the excess demand once the short-term psychological impact of increasing interest rates has subsided.

Footnote: Source of statistical data is from the September 2021 Market Watch report of the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS.

Monthly Percentage Change in Number of Units Sold –September 2021 – Illustration A

Month-Over-Month Average Price Percentage Change – September 2021 – Illustration B

Seasonally Adjusted Month-Over-Month Average Price Percentage Change – September 2021 – Illustration C

Monthly Percentage Change in Average Sale Price – September 2021 – Illustration D

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