August 2026 - Market Stats

Sep 9

4 min read

Is Canada's Housing Market Finally Bottoming Out?

What Trends are we Seeing?

Numbers tend to provide clarity and can be foundational in the decision-making process to guide individuals, families, groups and corporations with respect to next steps. The numbers we are seeing on a macro level and micro level seem to be doing anything but that. Depending on perspective, the current data sets either provide comfort and stability to act or uneasiness supporting a catatonic state among market participants.

Here’s what we’re seeing at a micro level from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Boards (TRREB) most recent figures.

● Number of sales reduced both year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month

○ 2.1 per cent less sales YoY

○ 1.3 per cent less sales MoM

● Average selling price is telling a mixed story YoY and MoM

○ 2.7 per cent lower average price YoY

○ 1.1 per cent higher price MoM

● New listings were 14.1 per cent lower YoY closing the supply demand gap

● The Sales-to-New Listing increased to 42 per cent moving into balanced market category

A traditional market would see August as a slower month. The question is do the market statistics represent a traditional August or continued uncertainty by market participants due to elongated oil supply chain issues and escalated tariff tensions.

On a year-over-year basis, semi-detached home sales increased across both the 416 and 905 area codes. Detached home sales also rose in the 416, while sales in the 905 remained relatively flat compared to the same period last year.

What Lies Ahead?

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released for the second quarter showed stronger-than-expected growth, with an annualized rate of 3.3 per cent. However, the results were met with some caution, as preliminary readings for more recent months have been less encouraging and renewed tariff tensions continue to leave the economic outlook uncertain.

July’s inflation reading of 3.0 per cent was an increase from the prior month (2.8 per cent). The consumer price index (CPI) median and trim read in at 2.0 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively leaving most economists to believe that the Bank of Canada (BoC) can continue to take its time to assess the impact of oil price fluctuations.

The unemployment rate was the most recent economic reading for us to review. The economy held a 6.4 per cent unemployment rate, however, lost 42,000 jobs. Immigration figures and labour force participants helped keep the unemployment rate steady. Regardless of a stable rate, the figure is higher than the BoC would like it to be indicating that the economy continues to require support.

Last week’s interest rate announcement to hold the BoC rate at 2.25 per cent was simply a formality. All major economic groups were expecting the BoC to hold. What unfolded over the course of the week, however, was a change in sentiment. The interest rate announcement preceded the unemployment rate announcement (which had been expected to add 15,000 jobs) and came with BoC sentiment suggesting that rate increases were closer rather than farther away. Upon the unemployment figures being released, most economists were of the position that the BoC would need to shift its sentiment and likely continue to hold interest rates where they are well into 2027, as the choppy waters of tariffs and unemployment will continue to undermine the case for rate hikes.

For Buyer’s there are several narratives to pay attention to i) interest rates will be stable into 2027 with the next adjustment likely being upwards ii) inventory is reducing with less new listings on a YoY basis becoming a trend and iii) we continue to see economic groups evaluating closely if we have hit the bottom. With these three factors holding headlines consistently, marrying that with your own personal real estate objectives should provide guidance on your next steps over the next 12 to 24 months.

For Sellers, the intersection of i) geographic location, ii) product type and iii) price point creates a unique narrative for how the market is likely to respond to your property. For those planning to sell and purchase a larger asset, the decision to act will be the right course in most cases. For those looking to right-size into a smaller space, a more detailed review of your next steps and overall timelines will be important to ensure the transition is properly coordinated and no missteps occur.

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from August 2025 to August 2026		Changes from July 2026 to August 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-0.1%	-2.6%	-1.4%	+0.9%
Semi-Detached	-1.8%	-7.2%	-1.0%	-2.5%
Townhouse	-12.9%	-7.5%	-8.0%	-2.1%
Condominium	-2.1%	-7.6%	-3.1%	-2.0%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing August 2026 to August 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	August 2026	August 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,057	5,168	-2.1%
Number of New Listings	12,075	14,052	-14.1%
Number of Active Listings	24,482	27,594	-11.3%

When comparing August 2026 to July 2026, we saw the following trend:

Categories	August 2026	July 2026	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,057	5,995	-15.6%
Number of New Listings	12,075	14,484	-16.6%
Number of Active Listings	24,482	26,098	-6%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing August 2026 year-over-year to August 2025 and month-over-month to July 2026. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from August 2025 to August 2026		Changes from July 2026 to August 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	+3.6%	-0.4%	-20.4%	-11.9%
Semi-Detached	+1.3%	+0.7%	-31.8%	-13.6%
Townhouse	-11.3%	-9.0%	-33.7%	-11.5%
Condominium	-0.2%	-6.9%	-16.0%	-12.7%