July 2026 - Market Stats

Aug 11

5 min read

Is Canada's Housing Market Finally Bottoming Out?

From Market Boom to Market Reset

Canada's housing market experienced one of its strongest booms during the pandemic. As borrowing costs climbed and the Bank of Canada aggressively increased interest rates, the market shifted dramatically.

Over the past four years we've seen:

● Home prices decline from peak levels

● Buyer demand slow down considerably

● Residential construction projects delayed or cancelled

● Many buyers choosing to wait for better affordability

The question has never really been if the market would stabilize, but when. Today, there are signs that we may finally be getting closer.

What the Latest Data Is Telling Us

Several indicators are beginning to point toward a more stable market.

Inventory is Tightening

Across Ontario, fewer homeowners are listing their properties compared to last year.

At the same time:

● New listings have declined

● Active inventory has started shrinking

● Homes available for sale are gradually becoming more limited

If supply continues to tighten while buyer confidence improves, the balance between buyers and sellers can begin to shift.

Buyers Are Slowly Returning

National home sales have climbed approximately 7% since their March low, suggesting that some buyers are beginning to come back into the market.

Why?

There are a few reasons confidence is starting to return:

● Lower borrowing costs

● Improved household incomes

● More stable pricing

● Greater certainty compared to the past two years

This doesn't mean buyers are rushing back into the market. What we are seeing is a gradual return of confidence and more buyers becoming comfortable making decisions again.

New Construction Is Slowing

Another factor worth watching is new home construction.

After several years of weaker demand, builders have significantly reduced the number of new projects moving forward.

The impact will not necessarily be felt immediately:

Less construction today means fewer new homes being added to the market in the years ahead.

If demand continues to recover while new supply remains limited, certain segments of the housing market could become more competitive.

What About Home Prices?

A stabilizing market does not mean we are heading back into another housing boom.

Many economists expect a period of relatively stable pricing rather than dramatic increases or another significant decline.

In reality, we are also unlikely to see every part of the market recover at the same pace.

The Toronto condo market, for example, could remain soft well into 2027, while detached and low-rise homes may perform very differently depending on location, price point and available inventory.

For buyers, that can mean more negotiating opportunities and less pressure than we saw during peak markets.

For sellers, it means understanding exactly what is happening within your particular market segment is especially important.

Why Economists Are Watching for a Bottom

Many of the pressures that drove the housing correction have already worked their way through the market:

● Pandemic speculation has faded

● Interest rates have become more predictable

● Prices have adjusted

● Supply is beginning to tighten

That does not guarantee a strong or immediate recovery.

Affordability remains a challenge, consumer confidence is still fragile, and broader economic and global events can continue to influence interest rates and employment.

Risks Still Remain

There are still several factors that could influence where the market goes from here:

● Consumer confidence remains fragile

● Affordability is still a concern for many Canadians

● Economic uncertainty continues

● Global events could impact interest rates and employment

Even the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) avoids declaring market bottoms because they can really only be confirmed in hindsight. What we can say is that the market appears to be moving toward more stable conditions, even if that stabilization looks very different depending on property type and location.

What This Means for Buyers

If you've been waiting for the "perfect time" to buy, it's worth remembering that perfect timing is almost impossible to identify while you're in it.

Today's market still offers buyers some advantages:

More negotiating opportunities than during the pandemic boom
Greater inventory choices in many communities
Lower mortgage rates compared to recent highs
Less buyer competition than during peak markets

At the same time, if inventory continues to tighten and buyer confidence improves, some of today's negotiating power could begin to shift. The important thing is understanding what is happening in the specific market, price point and property type that matters to you.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, today's market is still very price-sensitive. Buyers are out there, but they have more choice and are taking their time deciding which properties are worth pursuing.

Homes that are well-prepared, marketed properly and priced in line with current market conditions can still attract strong interest.

The key is having realistic expectations and a strategy that reflects what is happening in your specific neighbourhood and property type.

The Bottom Line

There are encouraging signs that Canada's housing market may be moving toward more stable conditions, but that does not necessarily mean we've reached a definitive bottom.

What we do know is that several conditions associated with a more stable market are beginning to appear:

● Supply is tightening

● Buyer confidence is slowly improving

● Borrowing costs have eased

● Market activity is gradually increasing

At the same time, affordability and broader economic uncertainty continue to influence the market.

Rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom, buyers and sellers should be looking at what today's conditions mean for their own circumstances and local market.

The best real estate decisions are rarely based on a single headline or market statistic. They come from understanding your goals, finances and the market segment that matters most to you.

If you're wondering what today's market means for your own plans, we're always happy to talk through the numbers and the conditions we're seeing in your specific area.

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from July 2025 to July 2026		Changes from June 2026 to July 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-1.5%	-6.7%	-6.1%	-5.1%
Semi-Detached	-9.9%	-4.6%	-11.3%	-1.3%
Townhouse	-6.0%	-3.5%	-10.9%	-1.0%
Condominium	-1.6%	-5.0%	+1.1%	-0.5%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing July 2026 to July 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	July 2026	July 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,995	6.047	-0.9%
Number of New Listings	14,484	17,623	-17.8%
Number of Active Listings	26,098	29,707	-12.1%

When comparing July 2026 to June 2026, we saw the following trend:

Categories	July 2026	June 2026	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,995	6,770	-11.4%
Number of New Listings	14,484	17,282	-16.2%
Number of Active Listings	26,098	27,329	-4.5%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing July 2026 year-over-year to July 2025 and month-over-month to June 2026. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from July 2025 to July 2026		Changes from June 2026 to July 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	+2.8%	-0.1%	-12.8%	-14.9%
Semi-Detached	-6.8%	-5.3%	-13.7%	-6.6%
Townhouse	+8.7%	-6.0%	+5.1%	-10.8%
Condominium	-3.3%	-6.6%	-6.2%	-13.6%