September 2026 - Market Stats

Oct 13

4 min read

Updated: Oct 14

Officially Another False Start

What Trends are we Seeing?

Over the Spring market there appeared to be a spark of activity with some economists calling it the start of what would be a long and bumpy recovery. That activity has either been mislabelled, or we are experiencing the “bumps”. Either way, the optimism that was spurred by potential trade agreements and a ceasefire in the Middle East no longer exits and the local real estate market is not immune to global headlines.

Here’s what we’re seeing at a micro level from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Boards (TRREB) most recent figures.

● Number of sales reduces both year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM)

○ 9.0 per cent less sales YoY

○ 5.2 per cent less sales MoM

● Average selling price is telling a mixed story YoY and MoM

○ 5.1 per cent lower average price YoY

○ 2.3 per cent lower average price MoM

● New listings were 14.4 per cent lower YoY closing the supply demand gap

● The Sales-to-New Listing dropped to 31 per cent moving back into buyer’s market territory.

The only product segment which showed an increase in number of sales was semi-detached properties in the 416.

In our book of business, we have noticed several different trends worth sharing:

● People are willing to pay strong rental prices to change their living situation while holding off on buying

● Below one million dollars has an active pace of showings in the freehold segment within York Region

● Slighting above and below three million dollars price point has stated to see an uptick in showings and second looks from buyers

What Lies Ahead?

The unemployment figures were the most recent data reading release (October 09, 2026) and came out poorer than expected. Economists had been projecting a 10,000 addition; however, we receive a reduction of 68,300 jobs. Concerning is that when accounting for August job losses we have seen roughly 110,000 jobs lost in two months. The unemployment rate held relatively constant with a small uptick to 6.5 per cent (up from Augusts 6.4 per cent). The jobs reading did little to instill confidence to the economy nor Bank of Canada (BoC).

Projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2026 are coming in at 1.5 to 1.7 per cent on an annualized basis from most economists. Furthermore, projections for Q4 2026 are falling below one per cent on an annualized basis. With job figures and GDP looking dull versus shining the only thing pushing BoC to consider rate increases is inflation.

Although the headline inflation rate for August held at 3.0 per cent. The main driver was oil prices with gas pump prices 22.8 per cent higher on a YoY basis. Excluding gasoline alone brings the August reading of inflation down to 2.1 per cent.

While inflation continues to be a concern, the most recent job numbers may be enough for the BoC to hold off on an interest rate adjustment for their October 28^th announcement. The sentiment from economist publications along with conversations of those who actively assess interest rate risk is that even when the BoC starts making adjustments it will likely be limited to between two to four 25 basis points at a time.

For Buyer’s the BoC sitting on the sidelines (thus far) and potential use of interest rate adjustments as “insurance” as opposed to a purposeful tool to recess the economy doesn’t mean rates aren’t changing at the banks. Over the course of the year we have seen fixed mortgage rates be attainable below four per cent now move to the mid-four per cent range. Decisions on whether to stay on the sidelines or act will be deeply routed in your personal objectives, the product type and location you are considering.

For Seller’s the time horizon of your desire to hold your asset is critical in the pathway you choose to select. Many expect the recover, when it starts, to be a longer road versus a shorter one. Understanding that there is not likely to be a three-to-12-month period where the sale price of your asset will change significantly, focusing on the net result of seller or holding is the key.

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from September 2025 to September 2026		Changes from August 2026 to September 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-7.6%	-4.4%	+2.4%	-2.0%
Semi-Detached	+2.1%	-4.8%	+8.8%	+2.6%
Townhouse	-0.8%	-5.8%	+15.6%	+0.7%
Condominium	-6.1%	-12.0%	-1.7%	-2.9%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing September 2026 to September 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	September 2026	September 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,040	5,540	-9.0%
Number of New Listings	16,500	19,270	-14.4%
Number of Active Listings	26,131	28,813	-9.3%

When comparing September 2026 to August 2026, we saw the following trend:

Categories	September 2026	August 2026	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,040	5,057	-0.3%
Number of New Listings	16,500	12,075	+36.6%
Number of Active Listings	26,131	24,482	+6.7%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing September 2026 year-over-year to September 2025 and month-over-month to August 2026. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from September 2025 to September 2026		Changes from August 2026 to September 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-4.0%	-10.3%	+16.4%	-4.9%
Semi-Detached	-0.9%	-13.6%	+32.7%	-11.4%
Townhouse	-13.7%	-12.5%	+14.5%	-7.9%
Condominium	-5.5%	-12.4%	-0.1%	-2.9%