January 2026 - Market Stats

Feb 12
4 min read

What Trends are we Seeing? Statistically, a dark shadow exists over the Toronto and Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market. Headlines regarding Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) with a 19.3 per cent decrease in sales year-over-year for January sales. Average price scraped by with a decrease of 6.5 per cent year-over-year. The month-over-month figures also pointed towards a declining market with number of sales decreasing 9.9 per cent from December to January and average sale price decreasing 2.3 per cent for the same period. The picture broken down by 416 and 905 area codes for each market segment does not provide any glimmer of sunshine.

If it sounds gloomy to you, I will agree. What has not shown up statistically nor in the headlines are the multiple offers we are seeing. We have seen numerous instances, with properties priced between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000, where 5 to 10 prospective buyers have decided to bid to make the property their next home. Furthermore, we have seen properties that had been on the market for six to twelve months and when re-launched with minor price adjustments on MLS in early of 2026 a buyer was found.

The picture on where the real estate market stands today is murky. Empirically we generally see a real estate market correction run its course anywhere between two to six years. We find that there is an initial drop from “peak” and then a longer “plateau” which runs for a period of time before we see a pick-up in activity. With February 2022 as our “peak” as we enter into our fifth year since the initial drop, we look for signs forward to recovery. Average prices, while constantly being noted to be slightly up or down, on a year-over-year basis, have showed typical plateau behaviour when we look back at a three-year analysis.

What’s happening now seems to be what can be expected in a typical real estate market recovery.

What Lies Ahead?

The unemployment rate came out most recently and dropped from 6.8 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The drop in unemployment rate has likely cemented the March 18^th Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement to keep the bank rate at 2.25 per cent. A notable highlight to what is otherwise an overall gloomy economic picture is that full-time jobs increased in the amount of 45,000 and that most of the losses came from part-time workers which could be expected coming out of the Holiday Season.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to be a concerning topic for Canadians. Discussions around productivity and in Ontario the impact of the trade war along with Canadian United States Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) weigh heavily. Economists are projecting a Q4 2025 GDP figure anywhere from zero to 0.3 per cent and looking forward to 2026 few project GDP to be over one per cent. The greater concern that is starting to surface, in Ontario especially, is the impact of the slowdown in the construction sector which traditionally represents a significant portion of GDP along with employment. Given that construction tends to operate over a 10-year cycle, especially with the recent slowdown in Ontario, we will need to focus on ensuring the construction sector doesn’t fail and cause greater economic negativity. After the most recent GDP figures were released, the markets stood at a 1.7 per cent probability of the BoC making a rate adjustment on March 18^th.

From an inflation perspective the statistics from earlier this year changed the narrative a bit relative to interest rates from an eventual increase to possible increase or decrease as the BoC next move. Driving that narrative change was that core inflation unstuck from the three per cent figures and moved towards the mid-two per cent range. The inflation figures are being released on February 17^th and unless they surprise us will not likely have an impact on bank direction.

For sellers, we are seeing pent up demand starting to move forward with buyer’s coming out to make purchases. This isn’t driven by ultra low interest rates or even excitement with respect to economic conditions, however, it is life moving buyers along and requiring them to take their next steps in their real estate journey.

For buyers, opportunities continue to exist, however, if you are one of those buyers who recently lost out in a multiple offer situation you may not be in alignment with the greater statistics. Focus on two items i) where do opportunities still exist that can be captured and ii) are you in a non-negotiable market and is the product type you are focusing on attracting multiple offers?

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from December January 2025 to January 2026		Changes from December 2025 to January 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-2.8%	-8.8%	+2.9%	-2.7%
Semi-Detached	-0.9%	-14.5%	+2.1%	-2.0%
Townhouse	-6.7%	-10.1%	-10.2%	-3.3%
Condominium	-8.6%	-13.0%	-4.7%	-0.7%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing January 2026 to January 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	January 2026	January 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	3,082	3,820	-19.3%
Number of New Listings	10,774	12,420	-13.3%
Number of Active Listings	17,975	16,621	+8.1%

When comparing January 2026 to December 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	January 2026	December 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	3,082	3,697	-16.6%
Number of New Listings	10,774	5,299	+103.3%
Number of Active Listings	17,975	17,005	+5.7%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing January 2026 year-over-year to January 2025 and month-over-month to December 2025. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from January 2025 to January 2026		Changes from December 2025 to January 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-16.4%	-12.8%	-29.8%	-16.8%
Semi-Detached	-25.0%	-15.7%	-21.3%	-9.5%
Townhouse	-22.6%	-23.9%	-11.0%	-9.7%
Condominium	-23.6%	-30.3%	-18.2%	-14.0%