March 2026 - Market Stats

Apr 10
4 min read

Updated: Apr 16

What Trends are we Seeing? When tracking activity on weekly basis the most common word utilized is “flatlined”. This is true when looking at showing activity, offers registered, and sold/leased properties for both the 905 and 416. Looking at the Toronto Regional Real Estate (TRREB) statistics released for the month of March we found a few rays of sunshine breaking through the clouds:

Number of sales on a year-over-year (YoY) basis increased 1.7 per cent
- Note there was a downward adjustment to March 2025 sales figures by 55 units
Toronto real estate prices climbed 0.3 per cent in March from February
New listings dropped by 16.7 per cent (YoY)

While the above three statistics sound like recovery trends (which they are) context is important.

From a number of sales perspective, this was the second lowest March on record with March 2025 being the lowest
This was the second consecutive month-over-month price gain we have seen, however, it was smaller than the prior month outlining the bearish market in place
While new listings decreased by a notable amount (YoY); however, no March has reported this much active inventory in at least 26 years

Below is an overview of the market segment activity. Note that overall on TRREB, accounting for both the 905 and 416, detached homes saw an uptick of 5.2 per cent YoY from a number of sales perspectives.

The twist in the plot was the total number of new listings. The number of new listings decreased by 16.7 per cent on TRREB on a (YoY) basis. This bucks the predominant trend we have seen over the last 12 months. It is indicative of some sellers waiting to have a clearer picture of the overall economy. What may occur if new listings continue to trend lower, is that there may be increased competition between home buyers which would support home prices and an increase in the number of sales towards a recovery. It is believed that there are nearly 100,000 buyers waiting on the sidelines to make their purchase which may fuel competition should they enter at the same time.

What Lies Ahead?

Supply shocks around oil continues to grab headlines. In-depth discussions around how this will impact inflation and subsequently interest rates is what weighs on both seller and buyer minds. With a two-week ceasefire in place, should a resolution be found … what can one expect? Going forward will sellers and buyers alike move into a more patterned version of what a Spring real estate market looks like or will they continue to sit on the sidelines!

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contributed to the narrative most recently where we saw an unexpected 0.1 per cent growth in January. With February GDP projected to be 0.2 per cent growth economists are projecting a 1.4 to 1.7 per cent growth for Q1 2026. Dissection of what has driven these numbers with Statistics Canada leaves most categorizing the Canadian economy as weak and needing stimulus still. Most major banks and consultancies are looking past the current volatility in the markets which are causing bond yields to rise and corresponding three-year and five-year fixed mortgages rates; and, continue to predict that the Bank of Canada will hold its 2.25 per cent interest rate for the year.

For Buyers, to say that the window of opportunity to purchase where there is a buyer’ market in place is closing may be pre-mature, however, pay attention. From a trend perspective, fundamentally we have seen two things over the last two months i) increasing price month-over-month ii) declining number of new listings year-over-year. If you find the right home or property to invest in, don’t wait!

For Sellers, did you know that last month 23 per cent of home sold for more than their list price? Did you know that three per cent of homes sold at asking? With over a quarter of homes selling above or at asking price and understanding that may sellers are adopting a pricing strategy that is one which focuses on leaving room to negotiate, don’t dismiss the opportunity to accomplish your real estate goals.

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from March 2025 to March 2026		Changes from February 2026 to March 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-6.4%	-6.1%	+2.8%	+0.7%
Semi-Detached	-8.0%	-7.6%	+0.2%	+0.5%
Townhouse	-1.9%	-8.3%	-2.1%	+1.2%
Condominium	-9.6%	-8.3%	-2.4%	+2.7%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing March 2026 to March 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	March 2026	March 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,039	4,956	+1.7%
Number of New Listings	14,442	17,340	-16.7%
Number of Active Listings	21,596	23,483	-8.0%

When comparing March 2026 to February 2026, we saw the following trend:

Categories	March 2026	February 2026	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,039	3,868	+30.3%
Number of New Listings	14,442	10,705	+34.9%
Number of Active Listings	21,596	19,314	+11.8%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing March 2026 year-over-year to March 2025 and month-over-month to February 2026. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from March 2025 to March 2026		Changes from February 2026 to March 2026
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	+1.4	+6.5%	+31.4%	+33.3%
Semi-Detached	-17.9%	+1.5%	+13.3%	+46.2%
Townhouse	+13.1%	-5.5%	+35.3%	+22.8%
Condominium	+3.0%	-0.8%	+29.7%	+32.7%