November 2025 - Market Stats

What Trends are we Seeing? Status quo with a few signs of activity in the first few days of December.  Declining number of sales made headlines again in November with a decrease of 15.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis and 0.6 per cent from October to November.  Average price on a year-over-year basis dropped 6.4 per cent while an increase of 0.6 per cent was noted from October to November.

Two key take-away statistics that should be taken with a grain of salt are:

• Average prices are now at January 2021 levels 

  • Impactful about this that even after an ongoing decline to the market since February 2022 we are still at 2021 levels

  • This speaks volumes to the run up of prices between 2021 and 2022

New inventory dropped on a year-over-year basis

• While this is promising with respect to closing the supply versus demand gap, many believe that inventory dropping is a function of seller’s waiting until Spring 2026

• At the same time, November’s total inventory (25,549 active listings) the highest seen in the last 15 years Some of the more rudimentary figures are below for your review:
  

  • Number of sold properties decreased 9.5 per cent from October 2024 to October 2025

  • Average sale price dipped 7.2 per cent from October 2024 ($1,135,694) to October 2025 ($1,054,372)

  • When looking at the market segments, it was the 416 area code for semi-detached and townhouses that held their ground or increase in terms of number of sales, the remainder of the categories declined on a year over year basis 

  
  

Breaking down the market into segments and looking at the 416 and 905 separately we see only a couple sparks of activity.

What Lies Ahead?

The recent unemployment figures caught everyone by surprise with the jobless rate dropping from 6.9 per cent to 6.5 per cent.  It was expected that we would have seen job losses (-2,500) nationwide, however, we received a net 54,000 additional jobs.  A continued trend where part-time employment leading the way over full-time was the concerning undercurrent.  With nearly one in five Canadians holding part-time employment, the report presents well statistically, however, lacks the confidence building merit which many would like to see.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures which were released came with an equal amount of skepticism.  Economist expected a 0.5 per cent annualized figure, instead we received a 2.6 annualized growth rate for Q3 2025.  The statistical mirage was driven by an increase in net exports due to a pullback on imports (-8.6 per cent) not the strength of exports (+0.7 per cent) and an increase of government spending due to an increase of 82 per cent toward weapons spending.  Household spending was down and business investment flatlined, hardly a confidence booster.

With inflation a bit sticky, GDP figures above two per cent and the recent improvement to the unemployment rate; regardless of the undercurrent to those figures the markets have predicted a 93 per cent chance that the Bank of Canada holds rates at 2.25 per cent on its December 10^th, 2025 rate announcement.  Going into 2026 rates are expected to hold or potentially increase.  With the Canadian, United States and Mexico free trade agreement being revisited next year a hold seems more probably as fireworks are sure to create uncertainty.

From a real estate perspective, considerations to the below noted thought processes should be given.

For sellers, if there is in fact a glut of seller’s waiting to enter the market in Spring 2026, get ahead of the game.  We have found success with presenting properties for sale prior to the Spring market which is then flooded with competition.  Preparation for this approach starts now with consultation and monitoring the macro and micro dynamics that impact a seller’s decisions.

For buyers, when opportunity knocks, at the very least, listen to what it has to say.  There is not a better time to explore, find the perfect primary home or investment asset, without having to battle an abundance of other buyers.  Given how a seller’s market has dominated the narrative in the Greater Toronto Area for years, during this moment of reprieve, at least explore your options to see what is possible.