October 2025 - Market Stats

marketing37571
Nov 10
4 min read

What Trends are we Seeing? Real Estate activity is starting to foreshadow the seasonal weather. Although there were instances at the backend of October where we saw increased activity in the $1.0M to $3.0M price range, the overall figures start to look like a slippery slope to toboggan down moving into the winter months. A few notable figures are as follows:

Home prices declined for the fifth consecutive month in October
Stepping back and comparing to the market peak in 2022, average sale prices are now down 25.5 per cent (-$325,100)
The only October with fewer sales on record was in 2008 -- the onset of the Great Recession
From an inventory perspective, it was the third consecutive year that October saw higher inventory than the prior year and the second highest October volume on record (only October 2020 saw more)

Some of the more rudimentary figures are below for your review:

Number of sold properties decreased 9.5 per cent from October 2024 to October 2025
Average sale price dipped 7.2 per cent from October 2024 ($1,135,694) to October 2025 ($1,054,372)
When looking at the market segments, it was the 416 area code for semi-detached and townhouses that held their ground or increased in terms of number of sales, the remainder of the categories declined on a year over year basis

With our feet on the ground, this is what we have noticed:

Within York Region, areas such as East Gwillimbury, Holland Landing, Bradford, Aurora, and Newmarket — particularly properties priced between$1.0 million and $1.5 million — are offering the right value proposition to move buyers off the sidelines.
Within some of the York Region Estate Communities we are seeing activity in product priced between $2.5M and $4.0M which provides buyers with either a land value purchase or an opportunity to take a residence to the next stage of its economic life
The Toronto condo market continues to be quieter, although we’re seeing some movement on unique product that is attracting interest beyond the typical investor demand
Upper end Toronto residences priced $3.5M or higher need to have a strong value proposition to motivate buyers to purchase at this time

What Lies Ahead?

At the end of the month the Bank of Canada (BoC) provided an additional 25 basis point reduction to interest rates which was picked up by most major lending institutions and passed down to consumers.

The unemployment figures came out for October and showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent. This likely solidified the BoC holding its interest rate where it is (2.25 per cent) at its next announcement in December. Casting forward to 2026, most financial institutions expect there to be two interest rate adjustments depending on how the negotiations with the U.S. and China relative to tariffs unroll and the general health of the economy.

The Federal Government provided Canadians with the budget to make Canada more self-sufficient. The increase in deficit projections has led to Fitch discussing a potential downgrade to Canada’s credit rating from AA+. Driving this discussion is that there is no creditable path to fiscal normalcy. The current projected deficit would be 1.2 per cent of GDP which is double that of pre-pandemic figures and the gross general government debt is projected to be 111 per cent of GDP by 2026 – the median for AA+ rated countries is 45 per cent. Should Canada’s rating change, this would likely result in an increase to interest rates from the federal, provincial, municipal and household level. The expected impact of such a change would be a 20-basis point increase.

For buyers, this is likely the moment that people will look back on and say, “I wish I had”. Although affordability continues to be a challenge, if one is set on living in the Greater Toronto Horseshoe Area the opportunity with relatively low rates and an abundance of supply may not come around for years to come.

For sellers, when consulting with those who are considering selling, often our primary focus is the timeline to make a move or deleverage from an asset. Reviewing the intricacies of your overall objectives allows us to advise on if it is time to hold or make a move to accomplish your goals.

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from October 2024 to October 2025		Changes from September 2025 to October 2025
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-9.1%	-6.6%	-4.0%	+1.1%
Semi-Detached	-6.9%	-6.8%	+3.2%	-0.8%
Townhouse	-13.8%	-7.1%	-4.2%	-0.7%
Condominium	-2.7%	-10.4%	+2.7%	-5.3%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing October 2025 to October 2024, we saw the following trend:

Categories	October 2025	October 2024	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	6,138	6,784	-9.5%
Number of New Listings	16,069	15,646	+2.7%
Number of Active Listings	27,808	23,722	+17.2%

When comparing October 2025 to September 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	October 2025	September 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	6,138	5,592	+9.8%
Number of New Listings	16,069	19,260	-16.6%
Number of Active Listings	27,808	29,394	-5.4%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing October 2025 year-over-year to October 2024 and month-over-month to September 2025. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from October 2024 to October 2025		Changes from September 2025 to October 2025
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-10.4%	-11.2%	+10.7%	+6.2%
Semi-Detached	0.0%	-4.9%	+22.9%	+13.7%
Townhouse	+12.6%	-13.6%	+13.6%	+13.8%
Condominium	-8.0%	-16.9%	+14.0%	-2.2%