September 2025 - Market Stats

marketing37571
Oct 9
5 min read

What Trends are we Seeing? There are some bigger and scarier numbers coming to fruition from the real estate market. Below are few Halloween haunt type figures.

Fourth weakest September for number of sales in the last 20 years
Number of sales in September were 27.4 per cent below the 10-year average and 32.3 per cent below 2019
Total inventory now sits 80.4 per cent above the 10-year average and 78.1 per cent above 2019 levels
Average price in September was 24.9 per cent below peak February 2022
Sales to New Listing ration set at 29 per cent; deep in buyer territory

However, things are never cut and dry in the Toronto real estate market, consider these figures.

Number of sales increased 8.5 per cent in September on a year-over-year basis
Number of sales increased 2.0 per cent in on a month-over-month basis
Prices were flatlined essentially from August to September with a 0.2 per cent increase in average price
- Yet, average price dropped 4.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis
Almost all product segments saw an increase in number of transactions on a year-over-year basis for both the 416 and 905

Riddle me this, in a market best described as “bad” and “terrible” we were in multiple offers with a buyer earlier this week and have seen as many as five offers registered on another property viewed with one of our buyers last week on offer night. Opportunities exist for both buyers and sellers in today’s real estate market. Buyers are coming off the sidelines as each interest rate reduction occurs and affordability edge slightly downward. Absent the record inventory figures creating headlines buyer behaviour paired with reduced interest rates would see a tightening market. Depending on the pocket and the product, it is starting to show up more consistently as both buyers and sellers have become numb to the much of the economic and political news that was causing shockwaves earlier this year.

What Lies Ahead?

The target has finally started to shift away from inflation. For the last 36 months inflation has stolen the headlines from other leading economic indicators. Each of GDP and unemployment played a supporting role to the inflation lead. While inflation is not seen to be completely out of the spotlight, the recent removal of retaliatory tariffs and concern relative o the slack in the economy has shifted focus. Core inflation has been sitting around three per cent, rolling three-month core inflation around 2.5 per cent and headline inflation below two per cent. Fireworks would have to occur in the upcoming October 21^stinflation figures to make it a lead role in the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement on October 29^th.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) made a splash in the BoC rate announcement narrative with a negative 1.6 per cent annualized Q2 2025 growth. Concerns are rising due to the Toronto and Vancouver real estate activity that is resulting in limited building to a historically inadequate supply to meet demand. In 2024 the housing sector contributed $124 billion to GDP and more than 880,000 jobs. As developers shy away from new projects and the real estates oversized contribution to GDP there are concerns of the ripple affect to the entire economy as a result of a real estate sector prolonged slowdown.

Unemployment played the leading role as it did in the September BoC rate announcement. With the October 10^th unemployment figures ready to be released they will likely not paint a prettier picture than that of the prior two results where combined July and August saw approximately 100,000 Canadians lose employment. Projections are that we will see a 7.2 per cent unemployment rate for September. Expectations of interest rate adjustments are seen as pending and not undetermined. The question is when will the BoC unleash additional downward interest rate adjustments, not if. If we are accounting for the fact that monetary policy can take months, if not years, to work its way through the economy, and if we see relatively weak but stable figures for unemployment there may be hold on October 29^th which would then create certainty for one of the next two rate announcements to see an easing of the BoC rate.

For buyers, with record levels of inventory it seems incomprehensible that we are encountering multiple offers. It is important to explore opportunities now in case the type of real estate segment and location you are focused on is a hot spot for other buyers as well. Don’t learn after the fact that opportunity has passed you by; make a conscious decision to act or not with the right information in front of you.

For sellers, pricing strategy has never been more important to capture the market. Done correctly, sales can occur in a reasonable amount of time in alignment with the product type and price segment. If done well, you can find yourself attracting the attention of more than one of the buyer’s that has wondered away from the sidelines.

What is Happening with Sale Prices

Sale Price Comparison
Product Type	Changes from September 2024 to September 2025		Changes from August 2025 to September 2025
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	-0.8%	-7.2%	+10.6%	-0.3%
Semi-Detached	-8.9%	-6.1%	+4.4%	-0.3%
Townhouse	-4.9%	-5.4%	+1.5%	-1.0%
Condominium	-3.8%	-5.4%	+2.0%	+1.9%

Number of Transactions Trend

When comparing September 2025 to September 2024, we saw the following trend:

Categories	September 2025	September 2024	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,592	5,155	+8.5%
Number of New Listings	19,260	18,529	+3.9%
Number of Active Listings	29,394	24,712	+18.9%

When comparing September 2025 to August 2025, we saw the following trend:

Categories	September 2025	August 2025	Percentage Change
Number of Transactions	5,592	5,211	+7.3%
Number of New Listings	19,260	14,038	+37.2%
Number of Active Listings	29,394	27,495	+6.9%

Looking into the different geographic pockets of Toronto and the GTA we notice the following changes in number of transactions when comparing September 2025 year-over-year to September 2024 and month-over-month to August 2025. The breakdown per area and product type are as follows:

Number of Transactions Comparison
Product Type	Changes from September 2024 to September 2025		Changes from August 2025 to September 2025
	Toronto	GTA	Toronto	GTA
Detached	+12.5%	+8.6%	+25.9%	+5.9%
Semi-Detached	+17.6%	+6.6%	+36.3%	+2.8%
Townhouse	+39.2%	-3.2%	+18.3%	-4.9%
Condominium	+7.4%	+6.9%	+5.6%	+3.8%